Scientific highlights

As part of the activities of the CORDEX Central America and South America Online Paper-Writing Series of Workshop on Regional Climate Modeling during 2020 and 2021, 8 scientific papers were designed with the aim of advancing in the analysis of scientific topics relevant for the CAM and SAM domains based on CORDEX simulations and enhancing collaboration of young scientists. During 2022, 3 out of 8 papers were published (see the three first publications in the box below), 1 is under review and 1 is about to be submitted to a journal.

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

Title, date, short description, location, website, links	Responsible person/-s	Funder
Conference on Regional Climate Modeling and Extreme Events over South America: results from the CORDEX-Flagship Pilot Study 4-6 September 2022 - Buenos Aires, Argentina & Parallel CORDEX CAM/SAM lab-training activity 4-6 September 2022 - Buenos Aires, Argentina https://indico.ictp.it/event/9835/ 38 in person attendees: Argentina (13), Bolivia (3), Brazil (11), Colombia (1), Italy (4), Peru (1), Spain (3), USA (2) + 12 remote attendees. See some photos at the end of the report.	Maria Laura Bettolli University of Buenos Aires/CONICET), Tereza Cavazos CICESE, Mexico), Rosmeri Porfirio da Rocha (IAG/USP), Marta Llopart São Paulo State University (UNESP), Silvina Solman University of Buenos Aires/CIMA-CONICET), Marcelo Barreiro University of the Republic of Uruguay), ICTP Scientific Contact: Erika Coppola	SMHI, ICTP, University of Buenos Aires,University ofSao Paulo FAPESP
6th Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling Workshop took place at Buenos Aires city, Argentina on September 7-9th 2022 (http://www.cima.fcen.uba.ar/cpcmw2022/). The workshop was an open forum to discuss the benefits and added value of using the regional and global convection-permitting resolution for weather and climate studies using multiple approaches. South American regional initiatives such as ANDEX-GEWEX, the field campaign RELAMPAGO CACTI and the NCAR South America Affinity Group (https://ral.ucar.edu/projects/south-america) were presented at the workshop together with the CORDEXFPS-SESA initiative.	Lluís Fita (CIMA-UBA CONICET-IFAECI), Maria Laura Bettolli (UBACONICET-IFAECI), Roy Rasmussen (NCAR) and Andreas Prein (NCAR).	NCAR, University of Buenos Aires, CONICET, GEWEX, IPGH
1st Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling Winter School http://www.cima.fcen.uba.ar/cpCMSchool2022	School Director: Marta Llopart, Lluís Fita, Maria Laura Bettolli, Roy Rasmussen and Andreas Prein.	NCAR, University of Buenos Aires, CONICET, GEWEX, IPGH

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2022

Scientific highlights

This year we implemented a bias-corrected version of the statistical downscaling method of Navarro-Racines et al. (2020) at daily scale for 6 CMIP6 GCMs known to have the lower biases for the region according to Alzmaroui et al. (2021). We previously computed the 1 km monthly precipitation and temperature projections from 1979-2099 using the same method for all terrestrial Central America and Dominican Republic, but know we have the daily precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature 1979-2099 projections for selected regions in Costa Rica.

Almazroui M, Islam MN, Saeed F, Saeed S, Ismail M, Ehsan MA, Diallo I, O'Brien E, Ashfaq M, Martínez-Castro D, Cavazos T, Cerezo-Mota R, Tippett MK, Gutowski WJ, Alfaro EJ, Hidalgo HG, Vichot-Llano A, Campbell JD, Kamil S, Rashid IU, Sylla MB, Stephenson T, Taylor M, Barlow M (2021). Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs. Earth Syst Environ 5 (1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00199-5.

Navarro-Racines, C., Tarapues, J., Thornton, P. et al. High-resolution and bias-corrected CMIP5 projections for climate change impact assessments. Sci Data 7, 7 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0343-8

Additional relevant information

There are no journal publications this year, we are working on a manuscript right now, we have these conference presentations: Hugo G Hidalgo, Eric J Alfaro and Adolfo Quesada-Román. Future Changes in Simulated Streamflow in Costa Rica from CMIP6 climate models. Frontiers in Hydrology meeting. American Geophysical Union, June 19-24. San Juan, Puerto Rico (virtual).

High resolution precipitation and temperature projections for Central American and

Dominican Republic from a statistical method. September 2022. ICTP-FPS CORDEX Conference, Argentina (virtual), https://indico.ictp.it/event/9835/

Participación en el II Seminario INCENTIVA 2022 “Desafíos de la integración regional gobernanza digital en la pre-inversión”, Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá, 22 y 23 de junio de 2022. Trabajos Presentados en el panel Riesgos, Cambio Climático e Inversión Pública en un Nuevo Contexto y en el Lanzamiento iNCENTIVA groupware (P.M. Pérez Briceño, E.J. Alfaro y H.G. Hidalgo). https//youtu.be/zqFnYRBSqjQ

 

Scientific highlights

Ouranos : CRCM5 simulations over NAM @ 0.11°, 1950-2100, SSP370 and SSP126, driven by (ungoing) CanESM5, MPI-ESM1-2-LR (completed), CNRM-ESM2-1 (ungoing) and NorESM2 (planned), 1979-2020 by ERA5 (two members, completed).

We added snow amount (variable snw) to the published NA-CORDEX dataset,and have laid groundwork for publishing an addition 13 variables, aswell an additional 10 fire indexes calculated from published.

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

Use of Storylines from Regional Simulation for Climate Hazards and Stakeholder Engagement,  April 25-27, 2022, virtual, 164 participants. Develop a clear synthesis of the current status of research following the physical storyline framework, provide examples of the use of storylines, and discuss with participants storyline symbioses with alternative methods of producing applications-relevant climate projections. Each day of the workshop focused on different themes: 1) history and recent innovations; 2) applications; and 3) the complementarity of the storyline approach to more traditional modes of providing climate projections.

This online workshop was designed around core principles of engaged dialogue and thus included 6 invited plenary presentations, 15 contributed lightning talks, and guided breakout discussions in groups of 10-12 participants. Meeting agenda and abstracts appeared at https://www.ouranos.ca/en/storylines_simulation (but are no longer available).

Responsible persons: Bukovsky, M. S., W. Gutowski, L. O. Mearns, D. Paquin, S. C. Pryor

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2022

and peer reviewed publications 2023

Scientific highlights

• Finalization of the CMIP6/CORDEX simulation protocol
• Finalization of the CMIP6/CORDEX ensemble design and GCM selection
• Participation of EURO-CORDEX modeling teams in three FPSs (Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean, LUCAS, URC-RCC)
• Aerosol technical workshop
• Participation in open-SAT meetings

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

Title, date, short description, location, website, links	Responsible person/-s	Funder
EURO-CORDEX General Assembly (Virtual)	EURO-CORDEX PoCs	-

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2022

Scientific highlights
Perform statistical downscaling with 1km resolution over South Korea region using SSP-based 5 RCM ensemble and Contributing to National Climate Change Report
Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

Title, date, short description, location, website, links	Responsible person/-s
AOGS2022: AS17-Regional Climate Downscaling and CORDEX - date:  Aug. 1, 2022 - location: Online meeting - website: https://www.asiaoceania.org/aogs2022	Dong-Hyun Cha, Shuyu Wang, Koji Dairaku, Jason Evans, Fredolin Tangang

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2022

Scientific highlights

Regional climate projections for CORDEX-CMIP6 Australasia  from three modelling groups (NARCLiM v2, BARPA and CCAM) with downscaling currently underway.

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

CORDEX - Australasia workshop 2022	Jason Evans and Marcus Thatcher	CORDEX / National Environmental Science Program Climate Systems Hub / Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water
Session at Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society annual conference - Regional climate projections and applications	Jason Evans and Marcus Thatcher
Session at Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand conference (MODSIM2021) - Projections of regional climate change: from modelling to applications	Jason Evans and Marcus Thatcher

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2021

and peer reviewed publications 2022

 

Scientific highlights

Antarctic: The Antarctic ice shelves act as a safety band preventing ice to flow in the ocean and rising the sea level. However, recent studies showed they can rapidly collapse due to surface melt.

Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates, hence leading to large uncertainties in future sea level rise. Kittel et al. (2022) show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water led to stronger melt. Clouds could therefore be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

Title, date, short description, location, website, links	Responsible person/-s	Funder
Polar CORDEX annual workshop, 28-20 September 2022, at NORCE/Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research in Bergen/Norway, sessions on Arctic and Antarctic research, and future plans	Priscilla Mooney, Annette Rinke	CORDEX

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2022

 

Scientific highlights

Arctic: The Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, including the high-Arctic archipelago of Svalbard is one of the fastest-warming locations on the planet. In addition to melting snow and ice which threatens a vulnerable ecosystem, thawing permafrost destabilizes slopes, coastlines, and man-made structure. For the latter, climate change impacts cultural heritage sites, e.g., the wooden houses in Ny-Ålesund and the coal cableway in Longyearbyen. To gain meaningful climate information on specific sites Langren et al. (2022) apply high-resolution (at 2.5 km horizontal resolution) regional climate modeling using HARMONIE Climate (HCLIM). They provide a multi-decadal convection-permitting climate projection dataset covering Svalbard for the years 1991-2060 following the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Projected future changes in the distributions, focusing on precipitation and snow, were quantified.

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

Title, date, short description, location, website, links	Responsible person/-s	Funder
Polar CORDEX annual workshop, 28-20 September 2022, at NORCE/Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research in Bergen/Norway, sessions on Arctic and Antarctic research, and future plans	Priscilla Mooney, Annette Rinke	CORDEX

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2022

 

Scientific highlights

Med-CORDEX simulations

• The phase 2 of Med-CORDEX was based on 5 modelling pillars (see
  www.medcordex.eu/simulations-phase2.php ): the so-called “baseline runs” that gathers
  evaluation and scenario simulations performed with fully-coupled Regional Climate System
  Models (RCSMs), the 3 Med-CORDEX related FPS (FPS-convection, FPS-aerosol, FPS-airsea, see
  specific annual reports) and the Free-Modelling Zone (see the activity list here). This phase
  ended in December 2022.
• The phase 3 of Med-CORDEX (see www.medcordex.eu/simulations-phase3.php ) is now
  starting. The ”baseline runs” of this phase 3 are aligned with the new CORDEX-CMIP6 initiative
  for the evaluation and scenario runs. They will be performed with fully-coupled Regional
  Climate System Models (RCSMs), also called Regional Earth System Model (RESMs). Those
  coupled models target to represent the high-resolution interactions of the various
  components of the Mediterranean regional climate system. In Med-CORDEX phase 3, the
  RCSMs will include at least the representation of the atmosphere, the land surfaces, the
  surface hydrology (incl. rivers) and the Mediterranean Sea. Some modelling systems will also
  include the Black Sea, the ocean biogeochemistry, the natural and anthropogenic aerosols
  and/or the waves.
• During the year 2022, the first actions of the Med-CORDEX phase 3 have been to: (1) list the
  key challenges and define the overall strategy, (2) list the participating groups and models, (3)
  design the simulation protocol for the evaluation (ERA5-driven) and the scenario (CMIP6-
  driven) runs adapted to coupled RCMs, and (4) define the Data Requests for the ocean,
  atmosphere, land surface and aerosol variables.Med-CORDEX dissemination
• Up to now (December 2022), the Med-CORDEX central database (phase 1 and phase 2 runs)
  includes 124 datasets including Atmosphere, Land and Ocean variables, provided by 15
  institutes, 8.4 To uploaded, 42 To downloaded by 305 users (find more information here
  https://www.medcordex.eu/medcordex.php)
• The Med-CORDEX simulations have been used over the past years in various assessment
  reports, including the MedECC Mediterranean Assessment Report #1
  (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7100601) and the RECO CROCC report (https://crocc.recooccitanie.org/) over the Occitanie region in France
• In 2022, 5 new scientific articles have been published including two articles studying the
  impact on climate change on the Mediterranean ocean biogeochemistry
•  To share the key documents of the Med-CORDEX phase 3 simulations (CORDEX-CMIP6), a
  zenodo community open collection (https://zenodo.org/communities/medcordex/) has been
  created
  Med-CORDEX organization
• We recall the Med-CORDEX email lists. Please contact the Steering committee to be added on
  the emailing lists.
  o whole community and baseline activity: medcordex@meteo.fr
  o steering committee: medcordex-sc@meteo.fr
  o CORDEX-FPS convection: cordexfps-convection@meteo.fr
  o CORDEX-FPS air-sea: cordexfps-airsea@meteo.fr
  o CORDEX-FPS aerosol: cordexfps-aerosol@meteo.fr
• An on-line meeting has been organised with the Med-CORDEX modelling groups (28-29 March
  2022) to start designing the phase 3.
• A dedicated Med-CORDEX Slack has been open to the whole community to facilitate the
  interactions

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

Title, date, short description, location, website, links	Responsible person/-s	Funder
Med-CORDEX on-line meeting, 28-29 March 2022	S. Somot, E. Coppola, G. Sannino, G. Jordà, B. Ahrens	none
One on-line steering committee meeting every 3 months in 2022	S. Somot, E. Coppola, G. Sannino, G. Jordà, B. Ahrens	none

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2022

Scientific highlights

In 2022, the CORDEX-SEA team focused on three main activities: 1) preparing RegCM configurations for downscaling, 2) conducting CMIP6 downscaling experiments, and 3) further downscaling into 5 km resolution over some smaller domains.

1) Preparing RegCM configurations for downscaling:
Sensitivity tests have been conducted with RegCM4.9.5 to determine the best physical parameterization options. The study was conducted on a new domain of CORDEX-SEA (Domain 1: 89°E–147°E, 15°S–30°N), which is similar to the previous phases but extended northward (to 30°N instead of 27°N) to fully cover Myanmar.

49 experiments at 25 km resolution have been conducted using ERA5 as the ICBC conditions. The simulations ran for 6 years (2010–2015), where 2010 was used for spinning-up. The model outputs were compared to the APHRODITE datasets V1101 and V1809 for rainfall and 2m-temperature, respectively. We tested the sensitivity of the physical schemes with four cumulus schemes (Grell, MIT-Emanuel, Tiedtke, and Kain-Fristch), four PBL schemes (Holtslag, University of Washington (UW), GFS 2011, and MYJ), and three moisture schemes (Nogherotto/Tompkins, WSM5, SUBEX). Note that we did not use mixed cumulus schemes because previous experiments demonstrated that they created weird land-sea contrast in rainfall. For the ocean flux scheme, we used the default in RegCM, i.e. Zeng, since previous studies indicated that ocean flux schemes have minimal impact on rainfall and temperature. For the land surface scheme, we used the more advanced CLM4.5 scheme.

Based on the performance evaluation, Exp28 (Kain-Fritsch cumulus, UW PBL, SUBEX moisture) demonstrated advantages in simulating rainfall and temperature over Southeast Asia. We conducted an additional experiment with the schemes chosen in Exp28 for a larger domain extending eastward (Domain 2: 89°E–162°E, 15°S–30°N) to check the capability in terms of tropical cyclone simulation. The results showed no significant difference in tropical cyclone representation between the two domains. Therefore, we decided to use the Exp28 configuration with Domain 1 for the next step: downscaling CMIP6 products over the region.

2) Conducting CMIP6 downscaling experiments :
CMIP6 downscaling experiments have been started in some groups. We are sharing the downscaling tasks with our member groups. We are running the simulations using the following ICBC data (but not limited to): 1) ERA5, 2) MPI-ESM1, 3) CNRM-ESM2, 4) EC-EARTH3-Veg, and 5) NorESM2-MM. Additionally, the Meteorological Services of Malaysia is considering running another set of experiments using WRF forced by the same GCMs.

The runs are designed to cover the historical period 1970–2014, with projections for SSP3-7.0 , SSP1-2.6 , and SSP1-1.9 . Experiments with SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 may be conducted later if resources are available.

3) Future downscaling to 5km Resolution:
The Malaysian team has further downscaled the 25 km simulation into 5km resolution of Peninsular Malaysia domain. Currently the ERA5, and 1 GCM run have been completed, with the aim to further downscaling 3 GCMs.

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

Title, date, short description, location, website, links	Responsible person/-s	Funder
The 2nd Vietnam Conference on Earth and Environmental Sciences, August 7–11, 2022, Quy Nhon, Vietnam Website: https://icisequynhon.com/conferences/2022/VCEES/overview.html Short description: A CORDEX-SEA session has been organized in the conference to discuss updates in the project, and to celebrate the 10th anniversary of CORDEX-SEA.	Thanh Ngo-Duc	APN, WCRP CORDEX, Rencontres du Vietnam, University of Science and Technology of Hanoi
The CORDEX Southeast Asia Workshop, November 8-9 2022, Bangkok, Thailand Website: http://www.rucore.ru.ac.th/CORDEX-SEA-Workshop Short description: The final workshop of Phase 2 of the CORDEX-SEA project brought together scientists, stakeholders and policymakers to discuss the relevance of regional climate downscaling in addressing issues related to climate change and sustainability in SEA, as well as highlighted the achievements of this project.	Jerasorn Santisirisomboon, Fredolin Tangang	APN, WCRP CORDEX
The CORDEX Southeast Asia Meeting, November 7, 10, and 11, 2022, Bangkok, Thailand Short description: This meeting discussed the wrap-up activities of the CORDEX-SEA Phase 2 project, and future plans for the CMIP6 downscaling and activities related to the urban climate initiatives.	Fredolin Tangang, Liew Juneng and Jerasorn Santisirisombbon	APN, WCRP CORDEX
The CORDEX Southeast Asia ESD Meeting, 10 Nov 2022, Bangkok, Thailand Short description: This is the first meeting of the ESD subgroup of CORDEX-SEA to discuss current research efforts in the region, and to coordinate with the CORDEX Asia ESD group.	Fredolin Tangang, Liew Juneng and Jerasorn Santisirisombbon	APN, WCRP CORDEX
With the culmination of Phase 2 of CORDEX-SEA project, a proposal for a 3-year project was submitted last 2022 to the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN). This proposed project builds on the knowledge and collaboration established in CORDEX-SEA and brings in expertise of new collaborators in urban climate research, with the goal of generating policy-relevant information on future climate hazards in SEA megacities, and strengthening partnerships with local policymakers and stakeholders.	Faye Cruz, Julie Dado, Fredolin Tangang, Juneng Liew, Chung Jing Xiang, Phan Van Tan, Ngo-Duc Thanh, Nguyen-Xuan Thanh, Jerasorn Santisirisomboon, Patama Singhruck, Jaruthat Santisirisomboon, Edvin Aldrian, Dodo Gunawan, Donaldi Permana, Quang Van Doan, Srivatsan Raghavan

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2022