Scientific highlights

Many students and researchers from South America (Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Uruguay,
Peru, see some of them in the picture below) were able to participate in the ICRC2023 due to the
financial support they received. The conference provided a place for the exchange of ideas and the
exploration of future lines of research and networking within the framework of the topics discussed
during that week in Trieste.

Participants from South America at the ICRC2023, ICTP, Trieste, Italy

Some of the CORDEX PoCs and Regional focal points of the WCRP from SAM and CAM have led a
concept paper with a focus on CAM and SAM to contribute to the series of concept papers planned for
the WCRP’s Open Science Conference 2023. The paper is on the process of writing and its title is
WCRP Regional LAC Concept Paper “Challenges for climate change adaptation in Latin America and the
Caribbean region”

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

FPS-SESA Side Event at the ICRC2023: In this FPS-SESA event, the South American CORDEX community was
invited to participate in order to discuss the prospects for future collaborative research and coordinated activities for the SAM domain. Maria Laura Bettolli WCRO-CORD EX-ICTP

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2023

Scientific highlights

I have been working with colleagues from Central America on a concept paper that is being presented at the WRCP conference and then published in Frontiers journal.

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2023

Scientific highlights

Ouranos : CRCM5 simulations over NAM @ 0.11°, 1950-2100, SSP126, SSP245 and SSP370 driven by CanESM5, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, CNRM-ESM2-1, 1979-2020 by ERA5 (two members) completed. 16 variables on the way to be available publicly on: pavics.ouranos.ca

Additional variables from CMIP5-forced simulations will be published on the na-cordex.org data archive by the end of 2023. This will include derived fire indexes from most existing simulations, and additional sub-daily data from a few simulations.

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2023

Scientific highlights

CMIP6/Euro-CORDEX simulation protocol” finalized. Relevant publication: Katragkou et al., accepted with minor revisions in BAMS (Dec 2023)
”EURO-CORDEX CMIP6 GCM Selection & Ensemble Design: Best Practices and Recommendations” finalized. White paper published in zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/7673400. Publicastion Sobolowski et al., submitted to BAMS (Dec 2023)
CMIP6/EURO-CORDEX archiving specifications and variable lists complete
Preparation of CMIP6/EURO-CORDEX metadata table
Preparation of distillation workshop

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

• EURO-CORDEX General Assembly (Virtual) 30/1- 2/2/2023 EURO-CORDEX PoCs
• EURO-CORDEX-workshop on Convection Permitting Activities 24/5/2023 EURO-CORDEX PoCs

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2023

Scientific highlights

Scientific highlights

In 2023, CORDEX-WAS concentrated on several activities: 1) organizing the South Asia Hub of the ICRC CORDEX 2023 conference and 2) working towards the committed CORDEX-WAS CMIP6 downscaling simulation for the WAS domain 3) holding a scoping workshop to develop a strategy for future climate projections in South Asia, Dhulikhel, Nepal.

1. South Asia Hub of ICRC CORDEX 2023 The International Conference on Regional Climate - Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment 2023 (ICRC-CORDEX 2023) was held at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune, India, from September 25th to 29th, 2023. As the India Hub, the conference served as a nexus for the global regional climate research community, focusing on high-resolution climate information and its practical applications in vulnerability assessment, impact analysis, and adaptation strategies. The primary goal of the conference was to advance and coordinate the science and application of regional climate downscaling through global partnerships, aligning with the CORDEX vision. The event aimed to bring together researchers, scientists, and stakeholders to foster collaboration and enhance the understanding of regional climate dynamics. One of the key discussions revolved around the increasing demand for reliable regional climate information that is not only scientifically rigorous but also effectively communicated to diverse end users. The conference provided a vital platform for participants to engage in discussions on regional climate science and explore the expectations of end users. This dialogue is expected to serve as an eye-opener for future research and scientific endeavors, taking into account the evolving requirements of various stakeholders.
   In conclusion, ICRC-CORDEX 2023 at IITM, Pune, proved to be a significant gathering that facilitated the exchange of knowledge, ideas, and expectations among the international regional climate research community. The conference successfully underscored the importance of global collaboration in advancing regional climate downscaling science and its applications in addressing the challenges of a changing climate.
2. Progressing with CMIP6 downscaling experiments: The CORDEX-WAS CMIP6 downscaling experiments, initiated in 2022, are approaching completion at IITM. Further ensemble simulations utilizing the same high-resolution (27km) model are ongoing, with the aim of completion by early 2024.
3. Scoping Workshop on developing a Strategy for Future Climate Projections in South Asia: This workshop is being held in Dhulikhel, Nepal with key stakeholders in Nepal from 18-20 December. The workshop will discuss the development on access and use of CORDEX South Asia datasets and other relevant future climate projections. Identify gaps and opportunities and contribute to the development of a strategy.

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

ICRC-CORDEX 2023 South Asia-hub served as a dynamic platform for researchers and stakeholders to showcase cutting-edge research and discuss the future requirements of CORDEX-WAS. This conference occurred from September 25th to 29th, 2023, at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune. The on-site participants comprised individuals from India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Japan, fostering a regional exchange of ideas. Additionally, the conference witnessed active participation and presentations from diverse nationalities, including representatives from Europe and Africa. This global collaboration underscored the conference's commitment to inclusivity and the advancement of CORDEX-WAS through a broad spectrum of perspectives and expertise. Sanjay Jayanarayanan IITM-MoES & CORDEX-WCRP

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2023

Scientific highlights

• Sharing of research outcomes on future assessment of change in East Asian climate based on SSP-driven regional climate projections through participation in AOGS and ICRC-CORDEX2023
• Publications of 9 papers related to East Asian climate change based on analysis of CORDEX-EA data sets.

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

AOGS2023: AS36-Regional Climate Downscaling and Cordex: Challenges and Prospects
date: 3 Aug, 2023 location: Singapore website: asiaoceania.org Dong-Hyun Cha, Koji Dairaku, Jason Evans, Fredolin Tangang, Shuyu Wang
Participated in ICRC-CORDEX2023 date: 25-29 Sep, 2023 location: Trieste, Italy Dong-Hyun Cha, ChuYong Chung, Jin-Uk Kim

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2023

Scientific highlights

I am happy to share the positive developments stemming from the CORDEX activities organized in the Central Asia domain.

1. CORDEX Central Asia Workshop in Uzbekistan (27-29 November 2023): The workshop held in Uzbekistan was a resounding success, accomplishing nearly all outlined objectives and identifying valuable contributors to our CORDEX group in Central Asia. Jointly supported by Samarkand State University, the workshop fostered fruitful collaborations.
2. Seminar at National Research University (NRU) Tashkent (30th November 2023):
   A seminar on climate data took place at the National Research University (NRU) in Tashkent, which has a consortium of universities that will serve as the foundation for our CORDEX future activities. This collaboration, facilitated through Professor Ailikun and two people from NRU who also participated in our CORDEX Samarqand workshop, strengthens our network.
3. COP28 Presentation on CORDEX Data and Activity (6th December 2023):
   During our seminar at the National Research University (NRU) in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, invited me to present CORDEX data related activities at COP28 in the Uzbekistan pavilion. This allowed me to showcase CORDEX activities, emphasizing its significance in the region. Uzbekistan now wishes to include CORDEX activities in its climate modeling agenda.
4. Two-Days CORDEX Workshop at Islamia University, Bahawalpur (6th and 8th December 2023):
   A workshop at a smaller scale was organized at Bhawalpur University, Pakistan with limited financial resources.

During the workshops we met good resource people that are in contact with us to develop research in Central Asia.

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

CORDEX Central Asia Workshop, 27-29 November 2023, Samarkand-Uzbekistan, training workshop in CMIP and CORDEX datasets: download, processing and analysis Shaukat Ali/Michelle Reboita CORDEX/Samarkand State University
Seminar at National Research University (NRU) , 30th November 2023, Tashkent -Uzbekistan. Introduction to CORDEX Central Asia. Shaukat Ali/Michelle Reboita CORDEX
COP28 Presentation on CORDEX Data and Activity, 6th December 2023, online presentation, Uzbekistan pavillion, utilization of CORDEX data and modeling research activities in Uzbekistan Shaukat Ali Uzbekistan government
Two-Days CORDEX Workshop at Islamia University, Bahawalpur, 6th and 8th December 2023, it was a similar workshop provided in Samarkand but in smaller scale Shaukat Ali Islamia University Bahawalpur/Pakistan

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2023

Scientific highlights

Four modelling groups are actively completing CORDEX-CMIP6 simulations. Most simulations are complete (or close to complete) and will be published on the ESGF once post-processing to CORDEX standards has been achieved.

Studies that use CORDEX-CMIP5 data to investigate climate change implications for solar power generation:
Poddar, S., J. P. Evans, M. Kay, A. Prasad, and S. Bremner, 2023a: Assessing Australia’s future solar
power ramps with climate projections. Sci Rep, 13, 11503, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-
38566-z., M. Kay, A. Prasad, J. P. Evans, and S. Bremner, 2023b: Changes in solar resource intermittency
and reliability under Australia’s future warmer climate. Solar Energy, 112039, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.112039

Evaluation of a CORDEX-CMIP6 simulation using bias corrected SSTs:
Chapman, S., J. Syktus, R. Trancoso, M. Thatcher, N. Toombs, K. Wong, and A. Takbash, 2023:
Evaluation of dynamically downscaled CMIP6-CCAM models over Australia. Earth’s Future, 11,
e2023EF003548. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003548

Work to evaluate CMIP6 GCMs for downscaling in CORDEX-CMIP6 Australia was also carried out:
Grose, M. R., and Coauthors, 2023: A CMIP6-based multi-model downscaling ensemble to underpin
climate change services in Australia. Climate Services, 30, 100368
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100368

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2023

Scientific highlights

To determine which ice shelves are vulnerable to melt-induced hydrofracture, Orr et al. (2023) used near-surface temperature output from 1979/80 to 2018/19 from two Antarctic CORDEX simulations (MetUM and HIRHAM5) to calculate a regional surface “melt potential” index (MPI) over Antarctic ice shelves that describes the frequency (MPI-freq, %) and intensity (MPI-int, K) of daily maximum summer temperatures exceeding a melt threshold of 273.15 (0°C), which is the melting point of snow/ice. Results are based on output from two models to enable model-dependence and consistency to be assessed. Hansen et al. (2023) examined the representation of an extensive melt event that occurred over the Ross Ice Shelf during January 2016 by the MetUM and HIRHAM5 Antarctic CORDEX simulations, as well as a physically-based, multi-layer, offline coupled firn model forced by both HIRHAM5 and MetUM output. The results show that both the HIRHAM5 and MetUM simulations considerably underestimated the number of melt days that occurred during the event, which is likely due to both limitations in their own ice/snow surface schemes and an absence of spin-up. However, using HIRHAM5 and MetUM output to force the offline coupled firn model resulted in a considerable improvement in modelled melt. However, despite its sophistication, the offline coupled firn model was unable to realistically represent the complete melt pattern over the RIS, which they suggest is due to deficiencies in the representation of cloud phase partitioning in models.

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

Annual Polar Cordex meeting, 4-6 October 2023, Utrecht University, Netherlands A. Rinke, J. Cassano, A. Orr, W. J. van de Berg Cordex, CliC
D2 session on “Regional Climate Modelling in the Polar Regions: Applications and the road ahead” at ICRC-CORDEX 2023, 25-29 September 2023, Trieste, Italy, https://icrc-cordex2023.cordex.org/ P.A. Mooney, A. Rinke, J. Cassano
Session M15 on “Polar Modelling” at IUGG, Berlin, Germany, 11-20 July 2023, https://www.iugg2023berlin.org/ J. Cassano, A. Rinke, A. Orr

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2023

Scientific highlights

New coordinated multi-model research activities were started. One of those activities is an evaluation of Arctic atmospheric boundary layer stability regimes, their frequency and radiative and mechanical forcing using observations from the year-long MOSAiC expedition. The approach is based on Jozef et al. (2023). A total of 12 modeling groups have indicated an interest in participating in this model intercomparison. According output from the different RCMs has been provided, results of a first model (CAFS) have been presented by Jozef and Cassano (2023), and first multi-model analysis results are expected in next spring. Another activity is the process-oriented investigation of a warm air intrusion event during mid-April 2020 that was observed during MOSAiC (Kirbus et al., 2023; Svensson et al., 2023). This study has its focus on the atmospheric boundary layer, air mass transformation, surface energy budget, and aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. This multi-model activity is a joint effort of Polar CORDEX and the EU-funded project PolarRES (https://polarres.eu/).

To quantify possible climate change effects, wind energy potentials from a multi-RCM ensemble of Arctic-CORDEX were calculated for future scenarios (Akperov et al., 2023). The seasonal wind power density over the Arctic is estimated to increase in the 21st century under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). Surface roughness through sea-ice and vegetation changes may significantly impact on the variability of future wind energy potentials in the Arctic.

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

Annual Polar Cordex meeting, 4-6 October 2023, Utrecht University, Netherlands A. Rinke, J. Cassano, A. Orr, W. J. van de Berg Cordex, CliC
D2 session on “Regional Climate Modelling in the Polar Regions: Applications and the road ahead” at ICRC-CORDEX 2023, 25-29 September 2023, Trieste, Italy, https://icrc-cordex2023.cordex.org/ P.A. Mooney, A. Rinke, J. Cassano
Session M15 on “Polar Modelling” at IUGG, Berlin, Germany, 11-20 July 2023, https://www.iugg2023berlin.org/ J. Cassano, A. Rinke, A. Orr

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2023

Scientific highlights

Med-CORDEX simulations

• The 3 FPS related to Med-CORDEX (FPS-convection, FPS-airsea, FPS-aerosol) are now finished
  as well as the ERA-Interim and CMIP5 downscaling experiments.
• Consequently, the Med-CORDEX community is focusing its current modelling effort on the
  production of the so-called ”baseline runs” (evaluation and scenario runs) in the framework of
  the new CORDEX-CMIP6 initiative. In this new phase, the simulations will be performed with
  fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs), also sometimes called Regional Earth
  System Model (RESMs) that include at least the high-resolution and interactive representation
  of the atmosphere, the land surfaces, the surface hydrology (incl. rivers) and the
  Mediterranean Sea. The experimental protocol and the associated documents (variable lists,
  list of models, list of runs) are now ready and shared openly allowing the start of the
  evaluation, historical and scenario simulations. So far 11 modelling groups are contributing to
  this iniative using 11 different modelling plateforms, 1 evaluation run is performed as well as 5
  historical and scenario simulations.
• In addition to baseline runs, two new initiatives have been launched at the 2023 Med-CORDEX
  workshop, that will expand the Med-CORDEX frame, one on the modelling of the
  Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry and one on the modelling of the Mediterranean coastal
  risks.
• Based on the long-term Med-CORDEX experience in ocean modelling, we have proposed in
  junction with other CORDEX domains the creation of the new CORDEX Task Force on Ocean,
  Sea Ice and Biogeochemistry at the 2023 ICRC workshop. In the coming years, this will be the
  main instrument to expand the place of ocean in the CORDEX initiative.

Med-CORDEX dissemination

• In 2023, new scientific articles have been published (see the list
  https://www.medcordex.eu/publications.php ) including studies dealing with the
  Mediterranean Sea modelling and impacts of maritime activities.
• The key documents of the new Med-CORDEX-CMIP6 initiative are available openly through a
  zenodo community open collection (https://zenodo.org/communities/medcordex/).

Med-CORDEX organization

• We recall the Med-CORDEX email lists. Please contact the Steering committee to be added on
  the emailing lists. Note that the FPS emailing lists remains active if you want to contact those
  communities.
  o Whole community and baseline runs related activities: medcordex@meteo.fr
  o Steering Committee: medcordex-sc@meteo.fr
  o CORDEX-FPS convection: cordexfps-convection@meteo.fr
  o CORDEX-FPS air-sea: cordexfps-airsea@meteo.fr
  o CORDEX-FPS aerosol: cordexfps-aerosol@meteo.fr
• The 7th international Med-CORDEX Workshop was held on-line (15-16 May 2023) and
  gathered a total of 105 participants. The workshop was constituted of scientific talks and
  discussion sessions. The scientific sessions dealt with the following topics: New CMIP6-
  CORDEX baseline runs, Lessons learnt from the completed FPS activities, Coastal risks,
  Possible new Med-CORDEX activities, Ocean biogeochemistry. More information can be found
  on zenodo (https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.7941329).
• An on-site Med-CORDEX side event has been organised at the ICRC CORDEX conference in
  Trieste in September 2023 gathering 14 participants. We discussed the way new comers can
  integrate the Med-CORDEX community, the baseline run protocol including the driving GCM
  selection procedure and the new ocean biogeochemistry initiative.

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

7th international Med-CORDEX Workshop, 15-16 May 2023, on-line https://www.medcordex.eu/medcordex_workshops.php,
https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.7941329 Med-CORDEX Science Steering Committee
Med-CORDEX side event, ICRC CORDEX conference, Trieste, 27 September 2023, on-site S. Somot

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2023

Scientific highlights

There was very little activity in 2023, reflecting the small number of active participants. Currently the following modelling groups are considering in proceeding with CMIP6 downscaling:

• The Cyprus Institute (Cyprus)
• Direction Météorologie Nationale (Morocco)
• King Abdulaziz University/National Center Meteorology (Saudi Arabia)

Two of the above mentioned groups have carried out test runs to downscale ERA5 re-analysis at 25 km. It is anticipated that in 2024 the ERA5 driven evaluation production experiments will be concluded and steps will be taken to identify/test suitable models/boundary conditions for the historical/scenarion CMIP6 simulations.

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

International workshop on Regional Capabilities for Monitoring and Projecting in Climate Changes - Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, 18-19 January 2023.
The workshop brought together scientists, researchers, educators including climate change experts locally and internationally, with the opportunity of the establishment of the Climate Change Center (CCC) in Saudi Arabia. Recent research and studies on the region climate based on analyses of observational datasets and CMIP5/CMIP6 multi-model climate change scenarios were presented. NCM presented planned research and development activities on monitoring and understanding the region current climate and predicting its future variations and changes. The workshop outcomes identified research and monitoring gaps, which will help the CCC in developing research strategies to support climate research, technology and operations activities in the region.In day 2 of the workshop, and during the Session 3 “Prediction, forecasting and historical analysis to support decision makers”, there was special focus on the MENA climate change based on the results of the MENA-CORDEX activities. Prof. Mansour Almazroui presented “Hot to extremely hot: temperature changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)” and Dr. Panos Hadjinicolaou, during his moderation of the session elaborated on the need for strengthening collaborative in the MENA-CORDEX framework for improved high resolution climate predictions for the region. Mansour Almazroui, Panos Hadjinicolaou WCRP (for PH)

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2023

Scientific highlights

In 2023, the CORDEX-SEA team focused on these main activities: 1) conducting CMIP6 downscaling experiments, and
proposal writing and implementation of the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN)-funded
Climatic hazard Assessment to enhance Resilience against climate Extremes for Southeast Asian megacities (or CARE
for SEA megacities) project.
Conducting CMIP6 downscaling experiments The CMIP6 downscaling experiments started in 2022 are still ongoing and being coordinated within the group. Additional simulations for the model ensemble will be coordinated with new collaborators: UK Met Office, Climate Change Research Centre of UNSW, Australia, MSS/CCRS Singapore, and the Brunei Met Service.
CARE for SEA megacities project With the conclusion of the APN-funded CORDEX-SEA Phase 2 project, the proposal that was submitted to APN last 2022 was approved this 2023. Started in October 2023, the CARE for SEA megacities project is the latest project of CORDEX-SEA. It aims to generate city-scale climate hazard information for SEA megacities under multiple SSP scenarios that will be relevant and useful for policy-making to enhance urban resilience through partnerships with local policymakers and stakeholders. One of the first activities of the project was a 3-day Inception workshop and stakeholder consultation last 22-24 November 2023 in Bangkok, Thailand, with the support from APN, WCRP CORDEX and the National Research Council of Thailand

CARE for SEA megacities: Inception workshop and stakeholder consultation 22-24 November 2023; Bangkok, Thailand

Summary of each workshop/activity held during the year

CARE for SEA megacities: Inception workshop and stakeholder consultation, 22-24 November 2023, Bangkok, Thailand
Short description: Updates on the statistical and dynamical downscaling activities in Southeast Asia, including coordination within CORDEX-SEA, were discussed in this workshop. A joint session with the WCRP My Climate Risk Lighthouse activity was also done to explore potential areas for collaboration. The workshop also provided a platform for climate scientists and invited policymakers from the SEA megacities to discuss and identify priority climate hazards in the SEA megacities. Faye Abigail Cruz, Jerasorn, Santisirisomboon, Jaruthat Santisirisomboon, Fredolin Tangang, Liew, Juneng, Julie Mae Dado, Jennifer Tibay APN, WCRP CORDEX, NRCT

For new publications please go to peer reviewed publications 2023