Session “Regional Climate Modeling” at the fall Meeting of AGU

We encourage you to present your research in the session “Regional Climate Modeling” to be held at the Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU).   In past years this session has had a strong turnout, making it an excellent opportunity to learn about new developments in regional climate modeling and to showcase your own work.  The session will include an update on CORDEX status and plans by CORDEX co-chair Dr. William Gutowski.

The AGU meeting will be held 12-16 December 2016 in San Francisco, California, USA.  The web page for the session is https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm16/preliminaryview.cgi/Session13074 and the session description appears at the end of this email.

The abstract deadline is Wednesday, 3 August 2016 at 23:59 U.S. Eastern Daylight Time (corresponding UTC is 4 August at 03:59).  Please be aware that AGU is very strict about deadlines and they will not accept late abstracts under ANY circumstances!  We recommend that you submit your abstract at least a day ahead of time since the AGU system sometimes becomes overloaded on the deadline date.

SE13: Regional climate modelling at UGM meeting

We would like to draw your attention to a Special Session that will be held at the upcoming UGM  (http://www.ugm.org.mx/raugm/) meeting in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, 30 October – 4 November 2016:

SE13: Regional climate modelling

In the last decade the study of the causes and effects of climate change, almost always supported by the integration of numerical models, has gained a social significance rarely seen in the history of modern science. Regional climate models have become a powerful tool to investigate the physical and dynamical processes of the atmosphere that regulate weather and climate. In recent years, the rapid growth of computational power has increased the potential and scope of such models, applied not only to the calculation of climate projections, but also to the generation of information for decision-makers.
This session will explore topics such as:

  1. The implementation and validation of regional climate models in various regions of the world.
  2. The use of regional climate models for the study of extreme hydrometeorological events: floods and droughts / cold and heat waves / tropical cyclones and tornadoes.
  3. Dynamical downscaling of global climate models for the different global warming scenarios reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.
  4. Studies of VIA (vulnerability, impacts and adaptation) to climate change
  5. Papers in English and Spanish will be received.

Deadline to submit abstracts: 07 August

Conveners:

Ruth Cerezo-Mota (rcerezom@iingen.unam.mx)
Cuauhtémoc Turrent Thompson (turrentc@cicese.mx)

World Oceans Day Portal of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO

The ocean plays a fundamental role in the global climate system, as it contributes largely to climate regulation by absorbing more than 25% of the carbon dioxide humans produce annually. It must therefore be considered as an essential part of mitigating climate change and solving climatic issues. Also, climate change deeply affects the marine environment, and preventing further climate change is important in order to maintain a healthy ocean. The mutual interaction between ocean and climate remains a key aspect of environmental science in order to tackle ecological problems. (read more)

http://www.unesco.org/new/en/oceans-day

CORDEX: The science that underpins future climate change policy

The Conference of Parties (COP) 21 in Paris in December 2015 agreed on a global effort to limit global warming to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers want to know the potential impacts of a 2°C global warming for different regions of the globe and different economic sectors. When planning for adaptation, policy makers need to understand the difference between global warming of 2°C and other climate change scenarios? Governments want to know what potential impacts can be prevented if global warming is limited to 2°C? There is a need for climate science to produce reliable and easy-to-understand information to specifically answer these questions.

Predicting future climate change is a complex task, requiring sophisticated numerical models and large teams of experts across many different disciplines. Every year significant improvements are made in high-resolution earth system modelling, to multi-model ensembles of both climate and impact projections and, particularly, in the bias correction of downscaled climate data. The WCRP Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) (http://www.cordex.org/) is working to address science-driven questions related to regional climate projection; identifying, quantifying and delivering high quality, reliable and accessible regional climate information.

impact2impact2ccCORDEX information feeds directly into policy-driven research. Take, for example, the IMPACT2C Project, which is a multi-disciplinary and international project providing information and evidence on the impacts of 2°C global warming. IMPACT2C includes model data from high-resolution (12.5 km) Euro-CORDEX (European branch of CORDEX) simulations. One of its outputs is the IMPACT2C web-atlas, which tells visual stories of the potential impacts of climate change with 2°C global warming for key sectors – energy, water, tourism, health, agriculture, ecosystems and forestry, as well as coastal and low-lying areas – at both the pan-European level and for some of the most vulnerable regions of the world to climate change.

IMPACT2C delivers a few key messages regarding our future with global warming of 2°C:

There will be large increases in extreme events for Europe, with much larger increases in daily maximum temperature over parts of Southern and South-Eastern, as well as increases in heavy precipitation across all of Europe.
It is expected that a global warming of 1.5°C (relative to pre-industrial levels) will be exceeded around or before 2040. In addition, almost all scenarios indicate that 2°C global warming is expected to be exceeded around or earlier than 2060.
Rates of climate change are likely to increase in the near future. Historical rates have averaged at just over 0.1°C per decade, but this could potentially increase to between 0.3°C and 0.7°C per decade over the next few decades. As much of Europe warms at a faster rate than the global average, this will mean even higher rates of change for some regions of Europe.
The project also considers the 2°C global warming benchmark as a precautionary level, which is likely to avoid the occurrence of extreme and potentially catastrophic events. These are referred to as tipping points or vulnerability hot spots and key examples are abrupt ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet or large-scale disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The conclusions of IMPACT2C have major implications for possible adaptation strategies on national and international scales. This is the information that governments need to plan for the future and it would not be possible without the science that necessarily underpins it. To find out more about the application of CORDEX information see Daniela Jacob and Claas Teichmann’s presentation on ‘Climate Services in the frame of CORDEX’ (14.00 CEST, Session D1), streamed live (http://www.icrc-cordex2016.org) from Stockholm at the International Conference on Regional Climate (ICRC)-CORDEX 2016.

EURO-CORDEX General Assembly 2016

EURO-CORDEX annual meeting Jan. 25-28, at the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Hamburg, Germany.

EURO-CORDEX community gathered for its sixth annual meeting in Hamburg, at the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS). There were vibrant discussions around ongoing research, plans for CORDEX phase 2, Flagships Pilot Studies (FPS) and the internal organization of the EURO-CORDEX community. The week began with two workshops on Monday Jan. 25th. These focused on Empirical Statistical Downscaling (ESD) and Land Use/Cover (LUC), respectively. One of these resulted in an agreement to more closely and explicitly integrate ESD and Climate Information Distillation as core EURO-CORDEX activities, in addition to dynamical downscaling. The LUC workshop lead directly to an initiative to submit a community-wide FPS focused on such issues.

The community also spent some time brainstorming key research themes. These discussions resulted in an extensive and exciting list of research ideas that relate back to both the mini-challenges identified by the CORDEX-Scientific Advisory Team (SAT) and, more generally, to the Grand Challenges put forth by the WCRP

In addition to confirming the community’s’ commitment to fill up the existing experiment matrices they also discussed the feasibility of additional simulations and variety of potential Flagship Pilot Studies. It was decided that the EURO-CORDEX community will submit two FPS applications one of which will be in collaboration with Med-CORDEX.

 

EURO CORDEX2016

 

For further information about the meeting or the community-wide FPS applications contact EURO-CORDEX points of contact Daniela Jacob, Eleni Katragko, Stefan Sobolowski or refer to the EURO-CORDEX website (www.euro-cordex.net).