CORDEX: The science that underpins future climate change policy

The Conference of Parties (COP) 21 in Paris in December 2015 agreed on a global effort to limit global warming to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers want to know the potential impacts of a 2°C global warming for different regions of the globe and different economic sectors. When planning for adaptation, policy makers need to understand the difference between global warming of 2°C and other climate change scenarios? Governments want to know what potential impacts can be prevented if global warming is limited to 2°C? There is a need for climate science to produce reliable and easy-to-understand information to specifically answer these questions.

Predicting future climate change is a complex task, requiring sophisticated numerical models and large teams of experts across many different disciplines. Every year significant improvements are made in high-resolution earth system modelling, to multi-model ensembles of both climate and impact projections and, particularly, in the bias correction of downscaled climate data. The WCRP Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) (http://www.cordex.org/) is working to address science-driven questions related to regional climate projection; identifying, quantifying and delivering high quality, reliable and accessible regional climate information.

impact2impact2ccCORDEX information feeds directly into policy-driven research. Take, for example, the IMPACT2C Project, which is a multi-disciplinary and international project providing information and evidence on the impacts of 2°C global warming. IMPACT2C includes model data from high-resolution (12.5 km) Euro-CORDEX (European branch of CORDEX) simulations. One of its outputs is the IMPACT2C web-atlas, which tells visual stories of the potential impacts of climate change with 2°C global warming for key sectors – energy, water, tourism, health, agriculture, ecosystems and forestry, as well as coastal and low-lying areas – at both the pan-European level and for some of the most vulnerable regions of the world to climate change.

IMPACT2C delivers a few key messages regarding our future with global warming of 2°C:

There will be large increases in extreme events for Europe, with much larger increases in daily maximum temperature over parts of Southern and South-Eastern, as well as increases in heavy precipitation across all of Europe.
It is expected that a global warming of 1.5°C (relative to pre-industrial levels) will be exceeded around or before 2040. In addition, almost all scenarios indicate that 2°C global warming is expected to be exceeded around or earlier than 2060.
Rates of climate change are likely to increase in the near future. Historical rates have averaged at just over 0.1°C per decade, but this could potentially increase to between 0.3°C and 0.7°C per decade over the next few decades. As much of Europe warms at a faster rate than the global average, this will mean even higher rates of change for some regions of Europe.
The project also considers the 2°C global warming benchmark as a precautionary level, which is likely to avoid the occurrence of extreme and potentially catastrophic events. These are referred to as tipping points or vulnerability hot spots and key examples are abrupt ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet or large-scale disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The conclusions of IMPACT2C have major implications for possible adaptation strategies on national and international scales. This is the information that governments need to plan for the future and it would not be possible without the science that necessarily underpins it. To find out more about the application of CORDEX information see Daniela Jacob and Claas Teichmann’s presentation on ‘Climate Services in the frame of CORDEX’ (14.00 CEST, Session D1), streamed live (http://www.icrc-cordex2016.org) from Stockholm at the International Conference on Regional Climate (ICRC)-CORDEX 2016.

EURO-CORDEX General Assembly 2016

EURO-CORDEX annual meeting Jan. 25-28, at the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Hamburg, Germany.

EURO-CORDEX community gathered for its sixth annual meeting in Hamburg, at the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS). There were vibrant discussions around ongoing research, plans for CORDEX phase 2, Flagships Pilot Studies (FPS) and the internal organization of the EURO-CORDEX community. The week began with two workshops on Monday Jan. 25th. These focused on Empirical Statistical Downscaling (ESD) and Land Use/Cover (LUC), respectively. One of these resulted in an agreement to more closely and explicitly integrate ESD and Climate Information Distillation as core EURO-CORDEX activities, in addition to dynamical downscaling. The LUC workshop lead directly to an initiative to submit a community-wide FPS focused on such issues.

The community also spent some time brainstorming key research themes. These discussions resulted in an extensive and exciting list of research ideas that relate back to both the mini-challenges identified by the CORDEX-Scientific Advisory Team (SAT) and, more generally, to the Grand Challenges put forth by the WCRP

In addition to confirming the community’s’ commitment to fill up the existing experiment matrices they also discussed the feasibility of additional simulations and variety of potential Flagship Pilot Studies. It was decided that the EURO-CORDEX community will submit two FPS applications one of which will be in collaboration with Med-CORDEX.

 

EURO CORDEX2016

 

For further information about the meeting or the community-wide FPS applications contact EURO-CORDEX points of contact Daniela Jacob, Eleni Katragko, Stefan Sobolowski or refer to the EURO-CORDEX website (www.euro-cordex.net).

ICRC-CORDEX 2016: Notification of successful abstracts and applicants for financial support completed.

 

Notification of successful abstracts and applicants for financial support is completed.

 

AOGS Conference: Abstract deadline 18 February 2016

AOGS Conference, 31 July – 5 August, 2016 in Beijing, China.

AS26 – Regional Climate Downscaling: Progress, Challenges and Applications

Abstract submission deadline: February 18, 2016

AS26 – Regional Climate Downscaling: Progress, Challenges and Applications Research on the dynamical downscaling using regional climate models has made considerable progress in the recent years. A number of techniques are being developed to make the downscaled products useful to the society. However, still there are many challenges in improving the downscaled results mainly due to the limitations of the physical parameterization schemes used in the models.

The aim of the session is to review the overall progress and challenges in development and application of regional climate models. In this regard, this session invites diverse research results associated with regional climate model from the improvement of the model physics and dynamics to interdisciplinary applications of downscaled climate data. We are also interested in the topics addressing the added values of regional climate model and its applications to the society. The results of the ensemble simulations from the international Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) are also welcome.

http://www.asiaoceania.org/aogs2016/public.asp?page=abstract.htm

Conveners: Dr. Satyaban B. Ratna (JAMSTEC, Japan), Prof. Fredolin T. Tangang (University of Malaysia), Dr. Eun-Soon Im (SMART, Singapore), Prof. Sushil K. Dash (IIT, Delhi, India), Dr. J. Venkata Ratnam (JAMSTEC, Japan)

January 13, 2016: Abstract deadline for Regional climate modeling at EGU General Assembly 2016

 EGU General Assembly in Vienna, 17-22 April 2016. 

We encourage you to submit your work to session CL5.09, “Regional climate modeling, including CORDEX.”   In past years this been the top session within the EGU climate section in terms of number of abstracts. We expect to continue in this tradition given the surge in activity for CORDEX and other RCM projects.

The session description is at http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2016/session/20078.

Abstract deadline: 13 January 2016 at 13:00 Central European Time (12:00 UTC).